Rustamzade Military Expert Biography

AGIL RUSTAMSADE: a capkan of analogies Frederick Befeder launched after a daytime war for Karabakh the propaganda “theory” that Ukraine is going to attack the occupied areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of the Ordlo, using the experience of the Azerbaijani army, continues to live in the information space. Despite the fact that, this informational stuffing was carried out as part of the Russian information and psychological operation to create the right “picture” before the upcoming relocation of Russian troops under the guise of exercises around the perimeter of the Ukrainian-Russian border, this topic still causes discussions.

Throughout the history of military conflicts, there were no confrontations that unequivocally repeating each other, there are always significant differences - starting from the causes of occurrence, geographical location, etc. Of course, the ways of solving these conflicts also differ. The purpose of this article is to show the reasons why the power path of the Karabakh conflict is not suitable for Ukraine in modern realities.

Reason 1. The foreign policy conjuncture of the Azerbaijani army began operation “Iron Fist” in a favorably established foreign policy situation, when Russia decided not to actively intervene in the conflict after the Armenia of the Armenia of the negotiation process in the Karabakh settlement. On the issue of de -knowledge of lands, Azerbaijan was actively and comprehensively supported by Türkiye.

For more than seven years, Ukraine has been in a state of a hybrid, but the war directly with Russia, which does not hide its intentions to protect Ordlo from the force scenario from Ukraine. This could have been completed, since the enemy in the person of Armenia, left on a rigidly limited TVD without open allied support of Moscow, does not have been expected.

Ukraine does not have a military ally who would take on specific obligations to provide military assistance in case of war. Even despite the Budapest Memorandum, according to which the UK and the USA and Russia, in response to Ukraine’s refusal from nuclear weapons, guaranteed its territorial integrity. Countries that are formally supporting Ukraine, such as Paris and Berlin in the Norman format, on the contrary, do everything to prevent the beginning of hostilities.

Propaganda theses about a possible joint operation with Turkey do not withstand any criticism. In the plans of the political “elite” of Turkey, the war with a nuclear power is not included. The reason 2. The difference in military potentials, any country, planning the beginning of hostilities, analyzes the entire range of indicators of the defense capacity of the enemy state, the number of armed forces, the mobilization resource, technical equipment, etc.

Azerbaijan at the beginning of hostilities had an advantage in all indicators in different years exceeded the entire state budget of Armenia. Russia, if you don’t even take into account its nuclear potential, are many times higher in all respects. Reason 3. The mood in society in Karabakh also began due to the fact that the Azerbaijanis in the vast majority demanded a war, especially after the Tovuz border conflict, when Armenia first attacked the border of the border - remote from the conflict zone.

Then the General of the Azerbaijani Army Poln Gashimov was killed. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Baku demanding to start a de -capacity of Karabakh. Is there such a public mood in Ukraine? I think not. Ukrainians, as of today, do not want a military operation against Ordlo with the prospect of a full -scale war with Russia. The listed reasons are indicated with the calculation of Russia's participation in the military operation on the ORDLO side, but even if for some reason Russia is not there at all, that is, a few more reasons why the Second Karabakh war cannot be an example for Ukraine.

Reason 4. This tactic is suitable for a high -mountain and wooded relief with a low population density, and the territory of Ordlo is a wavy plain relief with ravines and low hills and a strongly urbanized area with a number of large urban agglomerations. In the light of many speculations on the specified topic, even such an obvious factor must be given by necessarily. Reason 5.

The difference in urbanization of the terrain military operation in Karabakh was mainly carried out in the territories from where the Azerbaijanis were expelled and in these territories there was almost no civilian population of the Bufer zone occupied areas of Azerbaijan around the former NKR. On the territory remaining from the former NKR, where ethnic Armenians live, the Russian peacekeeping contingent was introduced.

There is no “buffer zone” in the Ordlo, and fighting will immediately take place in the territory with a millionth and mainly disloyal civilian population. Reason 6. The resource base Azerbaijan purposefully accumulated a financial “pillow”, which helped him painlessly for the economy to conduct a military operation.Officially, these data are not announced, but there are different calculation methods, according to which the war cost Azerbaijan in the amount of 3 to 7 billion US dollars.

Several tens of billions of US dollars will need to restore the liberated territories. For Ukraine, with the current state of the economy, the "frontal military" liberation of territories and their further integration will be a heavy burden. The potential help of the West in these matters for Kyiv still looks also unconvincing, as for AR. For Azerbaijan, the "stars came together" after almost 30 years.

When the clock for Ukraine breaks through, time will tell. And it has already shown that it is favorable to those who are constantly preparing and knowing how to wait ... Agil Rustamzade, a military expert, Azerbaijan Wartto.